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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 329 ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 2012 ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time
Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 329 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:00 SNA 12:31 14% 3% 0.6% 75%
DL 826 Delta Flight history → ATL 20:59 SNA 22:25 15% 2% 0.6% 79%
DL 2012 Delta Flight history → ATL 17:30 SNA 19:00 15% 3% 0.6% 71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:07 → DEN 08:16WN 204 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:21 → SNA 10:41WN 4771 6h 34m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → ATL 12:28 → DFW 13:42AA 1276 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → SNA 15:55AA 2659 6h 27m 89% 79%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:02 → DFW 12:16AA 820 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933 6h 36m 87% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON