Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3196 ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1057 ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:17	SRQ 09:52	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	SRQ 11:44	9%	2%	1.6%	85%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:56	SRQ 16:34	10%	2%	1.3%	80%
DL 2997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:07	SRQ 00:45	11%	2%	2.1%	78%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:12	SRQ 19:50	12%	3%	2.1%	76%
DL 1057 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	SRQ 22:52	13%	3%	2.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON