Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 244 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 244 ATL 07:02 → STL 07:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2218 ATL 19:11 → STL 19:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 244 Southwest	ATL 07:02	STL 07:48	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	STL 08:19	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:04	STL 09:43	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:40	STL 12:17	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
WN 1906 Southwest	ATL 11:23	STL 12:05	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:03	STL 15:52	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1403 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	STL 23:53	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:10	STL 17:53	12%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2833 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:09	STL 19:58	12%	2%	0.6%	76%
WN 2218 Southwest	ATL 19:11	STL 19:53	13%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON