Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2991 ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest DL 2123 ATL 21:35 → SYR 23:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2991 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:37	SYR 14:48	8%	2%	0.5%	74%
DL 2690 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:43	SYR 17:59	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2841 Delta	ATL 21:48	SYR 00:03	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1375 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	SYR 11:25	11%	2%	0.2%	87%
DL 2123 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:35	SYR 23:48	13%	2%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON