Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2754 ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2043 ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2754 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	TUL 09:18	6%	1%	0.5%	92%
DL 2620 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	TUL 11:56	7%	1%	0.5%	85%
DL 2837 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:01	TUL 18:04	11%	2%	0.5%	72%
DL 2043 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:18	TUL 23:19	12%	2%	0.5%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON