Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1817 ATL 08:37 → TYS 09:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3072 ATL 22:49 → TYS 23:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1817 Delta	ATL 08:37	TYS 09:36	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1743 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	TYS 11:10	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 1148 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:52	TYS 14:48	7%	1%	0.6%	80%
DL 2571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:16	TYS 17:16	10%	2%	0.7%	70%
DL 3072 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:49	TYS 23:50	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 4724 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 12:17	TYS 13:16	20%	7%	0.0%	80%
DL 5203 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:06	TYS 20:08	27%	13%	1.2%	73%
DL 5224 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:44	TYS 21:49	33%	14%	1.0%	67%
DL 5416 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 17:45	TYS 18:53	42%	17%	4.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON