Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3051 ATL 08:20 → VPS 08:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2803 ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	VPS 08:31	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:50	VPS 14:00	8%	2%	1.2%	80%
DL 3097 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:15	VPS 23:29	8%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	VPS 10:29	8%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 2170 Delta	ATL 15:45	VPS 16:03	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 2803 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:28	VPS 18:42	10%	2%	0.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON