Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5339 ATL 08:29 → XNA 09:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1710 ATL 19:31 → XNA 20:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5339 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 08:29	XNA 09:25	8%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 3747 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 22:52	XNA 00:05	10%	6%	0.6%	82%
OO 3785 SkyWest	ATL 13:42	XNA 14:46	10%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3739 SkyWest	ATL 13:51	XNA 14:53	11%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 5159 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 21:03	XNA 21:58	11%	3%	0.7%	63%
DL 5128 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 15:32	XNA 16:27	11%	3%	0.7%	77%
OO 3709 SkyWest	ATL 10:13	XNA 11:15	13%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 2771 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:14	XNA 18:05	14%	4%	0.6%	60%
DL 2598 Delta	ATL 19:07	XNA 20:03	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1710 Delta	ATL 19:31	XNA 20:26	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON