Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 1436 at 05:31, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1436 Delta Flight history →	ATW 05:31	ATL 08:43	6%	3%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → ATL 15:45UA 2779	6h 30m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	6h 20m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467	6h 46m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	3h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 16:45 → ATL 20:16DL 2021	7h 49m	96%	87%
American Details →	ATW 05:23 → ORD 06:34AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:15 → ATL 13:15AA 851	6h 52m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ATW 14:05 → DTW 16:30DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	5h 14m	93%	85%
American Details →	ATW 05:55 → DFW 08:24AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:53 → ATL 14:12AA 3104	7h 17m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 11:12 → ATL 14:46DL 9960	7h 46m	94%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	4h 57m	71%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON