tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1248 at 08:49, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1248 United ATW 08:49 DEN 10:41 8% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Detroit DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648 7h 45m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:23 → ORD 06:34AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 1h 35m Chicago ORD 08:09 → DEN 09:59AA 1225 5h 35m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet 3h 56m Chicago ORD 13:41 → DEN 15:27UA 2324 8h 12m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 6h 34m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431 7h 18m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:25 → ORD 13:49UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Chicago ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 6h 48m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927 7h 05m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:55 → DFW 08:24AA 4189 · flown by Envoy 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359 6h 51m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 5h 38m 71% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON