tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 4189 at 06:05, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4189 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ATW 06:05 DFW 09:01 5% 2% 0.7% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Detroit DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041 7h 32m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet 3h 20m Chicago ORD 13:05 → DFW 15:48UA 2290 7h 33m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 7h 13m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:38 → ORD 06:59AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 1h 31m Chicago ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555 5h 26m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Detroit DTW 15:52 → DFW 17:27DL 1441 6h 18m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:24 → ORD 13:46UA 4170 · flown by GoJet 1h 54m Chicago ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793 5h 58m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor 2h 43m Minneapolis MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970 6h 29m 90% 80%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 14:47 → DFW 17:16DL 2971 5h 49m 89% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:25 → ORD 13:49UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest 46m Chicago ORD 14:35 → DFW 16:57UA 309 4h 32m 73% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON