tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 8h 28m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → ATW 14:05 → DTW 16:30DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor 3h 27m Detroit DTW 19:57 → LAS 21:13DL 916 9h 08m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Detroit DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766 8h 42m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet 3h 56m Chicago ORD 13:41 → LAS 15:34UA 704 9h 19m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:25 → ORD 13:49UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Chicago ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875 7h 32m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:55 → DFW 08:24AA 4189 · flown by Envoy 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → LAS 11:34AA 1482 7h 39m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 8h 26m 94% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet 1h 08m Chicago ORD 18:13 → LAS 20:09UA 1703 6h 25m 67% 53%
UnitedDetails → ATW 14:40 → ORD 16:00UA 4383 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 16:50 → LAS 18:53UA 365 6h 13m 52% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON