Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3721 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3721 ATW 05:38 → ORD 06:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OO 4681 ATW 14:19 → ORD 15:32 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3721 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 05:38	ORD 06:59	6%	3%	0.8%	82%
OO 5340 SkyWest	ATW 06:24	ORD 07:42	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 4648 SkyWest	ATW 08:05	ORD 09:30	11%	6%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3340 Envoy	ATW 11:32	ORD 12:45	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 4669 SkyWest	ATW 09:55	ORD 11:09	14%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 4757 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 12:25	ORD 13:49	16%	7%	0.9%	80%
MQ 3341 Envoy	ATW 18:20	ORD 19:41	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
OO 4681 SkyWest	ATW 14:19	ORD 15:32	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 4170 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 12:24	ORD 13:46	12%	5%	1.6%	88%
UA 4190 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 08:15	ORD 09:45	14%	7%	0.0%	86%
UA 4383 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 14:40	ORD 15:59	36%	19%	8.9%	64%
UA 4391 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 15:44	ORD 17:05	40%	11%	5.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON