Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1344 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1344 AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4702 AUS 17:34 → ATL 21:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1344 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:25	ATL 08:47	3%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 1258 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:25	ATL 09:45	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 3197 Southwest	AUS 09:37	ATL 12:54	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	AUS 10:35	ATL 13:54	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2899 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	ATL 11:26	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:09	ATL 15:35	6%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:31	ATL 17:00	8%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:55	ATL 20:29	8%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 2287 Southwest	AUS 14:29	ATL 17:44	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:00	ATL 18:25	8%	3%	0.7%	79%
WN 2802 Southwest	AUS 19:25	ATL 22:40	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4702 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 17:34	ATL 21:16	23%	7%	0.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON