Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4905 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4905 AUS 07:15 → BNA 09:26 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4163 AUS 18:57 → BNA 21:18 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4905 Southwest	AUS 07:15	BNA 09:26	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 431 Southwest	AUS 09:18	BNA 11:26	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3463 Southwest	AUS 14:00	BNA 16:12	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 08:25	BNA 10:43	9%	3%	0.5%	79%
WN 262 Southwest	AUS 15:29	BNA 17:40	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 433 Southwest	AUS 19:14	BNA 21:24	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:34	BNA 18:02	14%	4%	0.5%	60%
DL 4163 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 18:57	BNA 21:18	15%	5%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON