Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2098 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2098 AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 1238 AUS 15:46 → BOS 21:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2098 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:20	BOS 12:29	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 1626 Southwest	AUS 12:15	BOS 17:30	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	AUS 17:45	BOS 22:55	15%	6%	0.6%	57%
DL 1156 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:25	BOS 21:42	16%	6%	0.6%	56%
B6 1238 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 15:46	BOS 21:19	18%	6%	0.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	57m Houston	IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28UA 1977	5h 58m	95%	89%
United Details →	AUS 06:09 → EWR 10:56UA 1760	1h 03m Newark	EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669	6h 07m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	51m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → BOS 14:51DL 1293	5h 36m	94%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON