Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1032 AUS 06:13 → CLT 10:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1052 AUS 14:53 → CLT 18:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1032 American Flight history →	AUS 06:13	CLT 10:06	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 1882 American	AUS 10:54	CLT 14:42	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1886 American Flight history →	AUS 08:12	CLT 12:00	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1052 American	AUS 14:53	CLT 18:43	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON