Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 714 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 714 AUS 09:45 → CMH 13:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2524 AUS 16:47 → CMH 20:34 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 714 Southwest	AUS 09:45	CMH 13:37	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1635 Southwest	AUS 10:29	CMH 14:19	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4028 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 09:23	CMH 13:17	7%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 2524 Southwest	AUS 16:47	CMH 20:34	17%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON