tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1446 at 13:15, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1446 Southwest AUS 13:15 CVG 16:58 12% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record AUS 10:30 CVG 14:12 17% 9% 0.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 1h 43m Boston BOS 14:12 → CVG 16:45DL 5789 · flown by Republic 8h 25m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 26m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:05 → EWR 11:50UA 1449 2h 09m Newark EWR 13:59 → CVG 16:12UA 3455 · flown by Republic 8h 07m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:57UA 361 2h 43m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 7h 48m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 5h 00m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 6h 44m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149 5h 03m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062 3h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 8h 23m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:52 → RDU 14:07DL 4921 · flown by Endeavor 48m Raleigh/Durham RDU 14:55 → CVG 16:41DL 4911 · flown by Endeavor 5h 49m 67% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON