tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4421 Southwest AUS 12:22 DCA 16:43 10% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 3h 16m Boston BOS 15:45 → DCA 17:49DL 5689 · flown by Republic 9h 29m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 04m Houston IAH 07:37 → DCA 11:51UA 512 5h 21m 96% 90%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:49AA 2399 6h 49m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 08m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 1h 36m Chicago ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668 6h 42m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:57UA 361 2h 33m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 8h 20m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 7h 53m 100% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON