Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 361 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 361 AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 3669 AUS 16:49 → DEN 18:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 361 United Flight history →	AUS 05:39	DEN 06:57	3%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 285 Southwest	AUS 07:00	DEN 08:21	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:25	DEN 08:48	5%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 189 Southwest	AUS 09:13	DEN 10:28	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 595 United Flight history →	AUS 08:30	DEN 09:49	5%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 333 Southwest	AUS 11:16	DEN 12:31	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 779 United Flight history →	AUS 11:27	DEN 12:45	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 1541 United Flight history →	AUS 12:55	DEN 14:13	6%	3%	0.5%	96%
UA 2447 United Flight history →	AUS 14:45	DEN 16:22	7%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 258 Southwest	AUS 13:13	DEN 14:23	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4777 Southwest	AUS 15:56	DEN 17:04	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 291 Southwest	AUS 18:22	DEN 19:44	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 439 United Flight history →	AUS 18:29	DEN 20:00	11%	4%	0.6%	68%
F9 2047 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 20:16	DEN 22:05	13%	3%	0.7%	70%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 16:49	DEN 18:14	15%	3%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON