Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2563 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2563 AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1146 AUS 17:26 → DFW 18:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2563 American Flight history →	AUS 05:01	DFW 06:12	4%	4%	0.7%	93%
AA 579 American Flight history →	AUS 06:00	DFW 07:19	4%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 2196 American Flight history →	AUS 06:57	DFW 08:26	5%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 794 American Flight history →	AUS 10:27	DFW 11:43	7%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 615 American Flight history →	AUS 11:25	DFW 12:39	7%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 862 American Flight history →	AUS 09:10	DFW 10:30	8%	4%	0.7%	66%
AA 1067 American	AUS 07:48	DFW 08:59	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1852 American	AUS 13:48	DFW 15:07	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1070 American	AUS 12:48	DFW 14:00	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 18:46	DFW 19:57	12%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 2198 American Flight history →	AUS 15:04	DFW 16:25	13%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 2103 American	AUS 16:24	DFW 17:40	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1146 American	AUS 17:26	DFW 18:40	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON