Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 12:43	ECP 15:02	13%	6%	0.7%	77%
WN 775 Southwest	AUS 15:10	ECP 17:13	16%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	5h 39m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → ECP 19:10DL 3053	7h 01m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 37m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 42m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 23m	97%	88%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → ECP 11:47AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	99%	85%
American Details →	AUS 15:04 → DFW 16:25AA 2198	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:59 → ECP 20:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	5h 55m	94%	81%
American Details →	AUS 06:57 → DFW 08:26AA 2196	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:19 → ECP 14:28AA 2052	7h 31m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON