Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1966 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1966 AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 685 AUS 16:18 → IAH 17:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1966 United Flight history →	AUS 05:30	IAH 06:33	4%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 350 United	AUS 11:59	IAH 13:11	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 730 United	AUS 14:28	IAH 15:51	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2196 United Flight history →	AUS 09:35	IAH 10:45	11%	2%	0.5%	76%
UA 282 United	AUS 18:41	IAH 20:04	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1326 United Flight history →	AUS 18:04	IAH 19:10	16%	3%	0.5%	68%
UA 2393 United Flight history →	AUS 07:10	IAH 08:13	18%	3%	0.5%	56%
UA 685 United Flight history →	AUS 16:18	IAH 17:20	22%	3%	0.5%	67%
UA 4004 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 16:10	IAH 17:25	27%	17%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON