Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 791 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 791 AUS 07:00 → IND 10:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1496 AUS 18:43 → IND 22:16 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 791 Southwest	AUS 07:00	IND 10:25	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2315 Southwest	AUS 09:20	IND 12:53	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	IND 10:54	8%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 3731 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:15	IND 22:58	12%	4%	0.5%	81%
WN 4527 Southwest	AUS 13:39	IND 17:08	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1496 Southwest	AUS 18:43	IND 22:16	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON