Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6472 AUS 07:02 → LAX 08:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 1584 AUS 20:30 → LAX 21:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6472 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:02	LAX 08:38	5%	3%	0.5%	100%
DL 306 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:30	LAX 08:37	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 357 United Flight history →	AUS 08:20	LAX 09:57	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
OO 6243 SkyWest	AUS 15:22	LAX 16:43	6%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 637 United Flight history →	AUS 13:59	LAX 15:26	7%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:40	LAX 14:48	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 1497 Southwest	AUS 12:07	LAX 13:19	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:15	LAX 17:20	11%	3%	0.6%	68%
WN 1316 Southwest	AUS 18:35	LAX 19:58	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1584 Delta Flight history →	AUS 20:30	LAX 21:43	12%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON