Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1544 at 13:48, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1544 Southwest	AUS 13:48	LGB 15:01	14%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 08:27 → LGB 09:34WN 2189	5h 34m	99%	92%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:06 → LAS 16:08WN 329	3h 42m Las Vegas	LAS 19:50 → LGB 20:58WN 1199	7h 52m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:32 → LAS 09:28WN 323	53m Las Vegas	LAS 10:21 → LGB 11:29WN 2712	4h 57m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	5h 44m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON