Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1311 AUS 07:15 → MCI 09:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3577 AUS 17:05 → MCI 19:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1311 Southwest	AUS 07:15	MCI 09:18	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 3650 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	MCI 09:19	7%	3%	0.5%	93%
WN 993 Southwest	AUS 15:24	MCI 17:24	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 3577 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 17:05	MCI 19:16	13%	4%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON