Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 3952 at 19:55, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3952 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:55	MEM 21:48	11%	5%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 07m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → MEM 14:11DL 733	5h 56m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681	6h 27m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 07m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	6h 07m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	6h 29m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:48DL 3020	7h 17m	99%	85%
American Details →	AUS 08:12 → CLT 12:00AA 1886	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 14:12 → MEM 14:54AA 2852	6h 42m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON