Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4344 at 10:12, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4344 Southwest	AUS 10:12	OAK 11:50	7%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:58 → OAK 17:44DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	7h 24m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	94%	90%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:32 → LAS 09:28WN 323	2h 09m Las Vegas	LAS 11:37 → OAK 13:04WN 2222	6h 32m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:06 → LAS 16:08WN 329	3h 56m Las Vegas	LAS 20:04 → OAK 21:35WN 2225	8h 29m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:30 → DAL 10:40WN 282	2h 08m Dallas	DAL 12:48 → OAK 14:18WN 447	6h 48m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	AUS 16:17 → SEA 18:47AS 503	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → OAK 22:46AS 706	8h 29m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON