Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2421 at 10:42, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2421 Southwest	AUS 10:42	ONT 11:52	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322	56m Las Vegas	LAS 07:53 → ONT 08:57WN 4725	4h 57m	97%	92%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:15 → ONT 09:42AA 1820	6h 41m	98%	89%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 36m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	6h 17m	99%	89%
American Details →	AUS 06:57 → DFW 08:26AA 2196	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635	8h 51m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:09 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	5h 57m	94%	88%
Southwest Details →	AUS 17:19 → HOU 18:27WN 310	2h 27m Houston	HOU 20:54 → ONT 22:21WN 570	7h 02m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:32 → LAS 09:28WN 323	1h 59m Las Vegas	LAS 11:27 → ONT 12:33WN 955	6h 01m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	6h 23m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON