tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4779 Republic AUS 11:54 PHL 16:54 5% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2774 American Flight history → AUS 07:30 PHL 12:05 8% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 7h 33m 98% 94%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:00 → DTW 11:58DL 559 3h 02m Detroit DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391 7h 43m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 7h 21m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 9h 08m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 2h 41m Boston BOS 15:10 → PHL 16:53DL 5706 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 5h 59m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:52AA 2255 6h 51m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 00m Houston IAH 07:33 → PHL 12:10UA 2203 5h 40m 96% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:18 → IAH 17:19UA 685 46m Houston IAH 18:05 → PHL 22:29UA 1663 5h 11m 61% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON