Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 397 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 397 AUS 06:31 → PHX 07:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1059 AUS 14:18 → PHX 15:03 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 397 Southwest	AUS 06:31	PHX 07:02	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1817 Southwest	AUS 09:15	PHX 09:48	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	AUS 08:27	PHX 09:15	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 334 Southwest	AUS 07:40	PHX 08:11	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4798 Southwest	AUS 11:57	PHX 12:33	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 455 American Flight history →	AUS 08:19	PHX 08:55	9%	3%	0.9%	90%
WN 399 Southwest	AUS 11:20	PHX 11:52	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2042 American Flight history →	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:28	16%	5%	0.9%	83%
WN 467 Southwest	AUS 15:28	PHX 15:58	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1059 American	AUS 14:18	PHX 15:03	17%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON