tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2526 Southwest AUS 14:38 PIT 18:45 15% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 4701 Southwest AUS 16:10 PIT 20:05 18% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 3h 01m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 43m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → PIT 14:23DL 2275 7h 58m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:00 → DTW 11:58DL 559 2h 29m Detroit DTW 14:27 → PIT 15:38DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor 6h 38m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 6h 35m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:35 → JFK 12:25DL 1411 2h 45m New York JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic 8h 40m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 5h 27m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:00 → DTW 16:02DL 1218 1h 52m Detroit DTW 17:54 → PIT 19:05DL 5498 · flown by Endeavor 6h 05m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 16:31 → DTW 20:35DL 2736 2h 08m Detroit DTW 22:43 → PIT 23:59DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor 6h 28m 96% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON