Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1929 at 18:09, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1929 AUS 18:09 → RDU 22:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1929 Southwest	AUS 18:09	RDU 22:10	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 09:52	RDU 14:07	17%	8%	0.0%	83%
DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 19:43	RDU 21:45	25%	11%	0.4%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON