Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 411 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 411 AUS 06:55 → SAN 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 507 AUS 16:15 → SAN 17:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 411 Southwest	AUS 06:55	SAN 07:56	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 3293 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SAN 07:08	6%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 3301 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 21:38	SAN 22:34	8%	4%	0.7%	84%
WN 416 Southwest	AUS 11:10	SAN 12:12	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 534 Southwest	AUS 11:03	SAN 12:03	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3489 SkyWest	AUS 13:55	SAN 15:07	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3464 SkyWest	AUS 13:58	SAN 15:04	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 279 Southwest	AUS 16:10	SAN 17:28	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4057 Southwest	AUS 19:38	SAN 20:45	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 507 Southwest	AUS 16:15	SAN 17:20	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON