Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 780 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 780 AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3544 AUS 16:14 → SEA 18:32 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 780 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SEA 08:23	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1684 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:14	SEA 13:45	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
AS 503 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 16:17	SEA 18:47	15%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:33	SEA 22:11	15%	4%	0.6%	76%
AS 339 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 19:07	SEA 21:35	18%	4%	0.6%	74%
AS 416 Alaska	AUS 08:42	SEA 10:36	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3544 Southwest	AUS 16:14	SEA 18:32	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON