Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 381 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 381 AUS 07:10 → SFO 08:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest UA 292 AUS 20:01 → SFO 21:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 381 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:10	SFO 08:47	6%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 1336 United Flight history →	AUS 13:30	SFO 15:36	9%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1668 United Flight history →	AUS 08:40	SFO 10:25	11%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 2774 Southwest	AUS 12:01	SFO 13:42	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:21	SFO 17:04	13%	5%	0.6%	50%
WN 184 Southwest	AUS 17:08	SFO 19:02	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1204 United	AUS 20:46	SFO 22:44	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 442 United Flight history →	AUS 15:35	SFO 17:24	14%	4%	0.6%	65%
UA 292 United Flight history →	AUS 20:01	SFO 21:50	18%	4%	0.6%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	AUS 16:15 → LAX 17:20DL 986	51m Los Angeles	LAX 18:11 → SFO 19:35DL 2197	5h 20m	83%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON