Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2618 AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2581 AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2618 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	SLC 10:12	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:20	SLC 14:09	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
WN 4891 Southwest	AUS 13:42	SLC 15:23	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:25	SLC 21:21	11%	4%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON