Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 921 at 16:37, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 921 Southwest	AUS 16:37	SMF 18:22	16%	4%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:57UA 361	1h 03m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	5h 56m	98%	91%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 51m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SMF 13:18UA 2673	6h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	3h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 18:44 → SMF 20:21DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	99%	90%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:17 → SMF 10:01AA 2081	7h 00m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 59m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	6h 19m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 01m	96%	88%
United Details →	AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779	3h 18m Denver	DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:40UA 1208	8h 13m	100%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON