tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2216 at 17:12, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2216 Southwest AUS 17:12 SNA 18:22 22% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:30 → SFO 15:36UA 1336 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 9h 25m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322 2h 20m Las Vegas LAS 09:17 → SNA 10:22WN 3529 6h 22m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:00 → DFW 06:16AA 862 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → SNA 11:15AA 1939 8h 15m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:09 → SNA 08:39AA 1686 5h 38m 95% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 8h 27m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:57 → DFW 08:26AA 2196 3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 9h 02m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 2h 57m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 29m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:26 → SNA 09:40AA 2114 5h 40m 96% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON