tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 998 Southwest AUS 07:24 STL 09:33 3% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 1772 Southwest AUS 15:45 STL 17:54 9% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:20 → DTW 09:21DL 1040 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 7h 45m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 52m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543 7h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 15:05 → STL 16:41DL 1224 6h 58m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 1h 24m Chicago ORD 11:03 → STL 12:27UA 1044 5h 47m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:57UA 361 2h 38m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 7h 03m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:34 → STL 09:34AA 3333 4h 33m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 7h 18m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 1h 03m Houston IAH 18:28 → STL 20:40UA 4573 · flown by GoJet 4h 30m 73% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON