tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Tulsa on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 31m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 59m Houston IAH 14:44 → TUL 16:35UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 7h 00m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 5h 55m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:52 → CLT 09:33AA 1032 1h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:58 → TUL 12:45AA 2657 6h 53m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 6h 24m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 18:16 → ORD 21:11AA 1568 2h 00m Chicago ORD 23:11 → TUL 01:07 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 6h 51m 94% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:08 → TUL 08:33AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 3h 32m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779 55m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 02m 93% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON