Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5489 AVL 06:04 → CLT 06:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OH 5127 AVL 18:56 → CLT 19:53 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5489 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 06:04	CLT 06:58	9%	3%	1.8%	89%
OH 5320 PSA	AVL 17:10	CLT 18:14	10%	3%	1.6%	no record
OH 5588 PSA	AVL 15:17	CLT 16:19	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
OH 5127 PSA	AVL 18:56	CLT 19:53	12%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 6033 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 08:52	CLT 10:14	8%	3%	1.4%	92%
AA 6101 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 11:20	CLT 12:32	12%	3%	2.0%	88%
AA 6112 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 14:44	CLT 15:58	20%	11%	0.0%	80%
AA 6032 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 18:20	CLT 19:39	39%	21%	0.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON