Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2400 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2400 AVL 07:03 → DFW 08:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 569 AVL 16:34 → DFW 17:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2400 American	AVL 07:03	DFW 08:55	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 3269 American	AVL 08:06	DFW 09:34	10%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 569 American Flight history →	AVL 16:34	DFW 17:53	20%	6%	0.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON