tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, G7 4178 at 17:37, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G7 4178 GoJet AVL 17:37 EWR 19:34 23% 6% 1.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 54m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → AVL 06:03 → CLT 06:58AA 5489 · flown by PSA 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 10:55 → EWR 12:53AA 1697 6h 50m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 23m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 5h 19m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 6h 55m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:49 → ORD 11:54UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Chicago ORD 15:00 → EWR 18:09UA 2466 7h 20m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → AVL 13:39 → CLT 14:39AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 18:31 → EWR 20:29AA 997 6h 50m 97% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON