Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4418 at 15:36, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4418 AVL 15:36 → LGA 17:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 15:36	LGA 17:44	11%	5%	1.0%	70%
DL 5025 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 12:20	LGA 14:23	24%	11%	3.5%	76%
DL 4664 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 18:56	LGA 21:02	56%	39%	12.5%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON