Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4013 at 09:24 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4013 AVL 09:24 → ORD 10:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4167 AVL 17:38 → ORD 18:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4013 Envoy	AVL 09:24	ORD 10:28	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 4652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 10:49	ORD 11:55	10%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 11:21	ORD 12:26	11%	3%	0.9%	82%
OO 5833 SkyWest	AVL 06:50	ORD 07:59	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3424 Envoy	AVL 16:45	ORD 17:49	16%	3%	1.0%	no record
YX 4737 Republic	AVL 18:28	ORD 19:41	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
G7 4167 GoJet	AVL 17:38	ORD 18:43	19%	5%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON