Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2116 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–14%.

Safest bet that day AA 2116 SFO 05:36 → DFW 11:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1184 SFO 14:12 → DAL 19:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2116 American	SFO 05:36	DFW 11:11	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	5%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 172 Southwest	OAK 08:05	DAL 13:30	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4033 Southwest	SJC 08:42	DAL 14:09	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 304 American Flight history →	SFO 07:58	DFW 13:18	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
AA 1188 American	SFO 09:01	DFW 14:45	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 557 American	SFO 17:18	DFW 23:01	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2834 American Flight history →	SJC 14:23	DFW 20:34	13%	5%	0.7%	73%
UA 1336 United	SFO 16:53	DFW 22:35	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:00	DFW 05:39	15%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	16%	4%	0.5%	61%
AA 2046 American Flight history →	SJC 11:55	DFW 17:32	16%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 3222 American	SFO 13:48	DFW 19:11	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	16%	5%	0.8%	45%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	17%	6%	0.8%	50%
WN 1184 Southwest	SFO 14:12	DAL 19:39	20%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON