Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2431 SFO 08:55 → FLL 17:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1458 SFO 12:27 → MIA 21:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2431 United	SFO 08:55	FLL 17:36	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:24	FLL 19:13	17%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 09:32	MIA 18:11	22%	8%	1.2%	72%
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:27	MIA 21:08	22%	8%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	1h 24m Houston	IAH 07:58 → FLL 11:55UA 2261	8h 10m	97%	88%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:50 → FLL 15:53UA 1214	7h 53m	97%	83%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	57m Houston	IAH 11:52 → FLL 15:28UA 1982	7h 28m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON